Ruling opens way for AB InBev buyout of Modelo

By Reuters
Posted July 12, 2010 at 10:22 a.m.

Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, said Monday that a New York arbitration panel has ruled that its ownership of a 50 percent stake in Grupo Modelo is legitimate, dismissing the Mexican beermaker’s $2.5 billion claim.

Ending the dispute could open the way to AB InBev increasing its stake in Modelo, Mexico’s largest brewer and producer of the Corona brand, analysts say.Modelo filed for arbitration in October 2008, during InBev’s $52 billion acquisition of Anheuser-Busch, which owned 50 percent of Modelo, claiming it was not consulted about the takeover. Last year AB InBev said Modelo was also demanding $2.5 billion in damages.

Analysts said the news removed the prospect of AB Inbev having to pay damages but also wondered how the two companies would cooperate. Few expected an immediate takeover deal.

Andrew Holland of Evolution Securities said in March that AB InBev was likely to announce this year that it would acquire the rest of Modelo. On Monday, he said he believed it at least made sense now for both parties to meet for talks.

“I have no doubt that AB InBev would like to do the deal. The intention of the (Modelo) controlling shareholders is not clear,” he said, adding the price for the remaining 50 percent was likely to be between $11 billion and $13 billion.

AB InBev’s 50.2 percent equity stake gives it 44 percent of the voting rights. The remaining 56 percent of such rights are in the hands of Modelo’s controlling families.

As a growth market, Mexico would accelerate increases in volumes and revenue for AB InBev, which would seek cost savings at Modelo.

Modelo’s key shareholders may now be inclined to do a deal, assuming competition heats up after Heineken’s purchase of main rival FEMSA.

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